Integrated Resilience, Gender, and Peace & Conflict Analysis --Syria and Lebanon

## CONTEXT

**Syria**'s post-conflict environment remains deeply fragile. Since December 2024, nearly 1.99 million IDP returnees and over 1.14 million cross-border arrivals have been recorded, representing 11% of the total population. Syria's Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) 2026 estimates 15.6 million people in need of assistance, including over 5.5 million IDPs. Over 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, and economic stress continues to undermine stability and strain local coping mechanisms.

**Lebanon** continues to face significant humanitarian needs following the escalation of hostilities in March 2026. Despite repeated ceasefire announcements and diplomatic efforts, the situation remains volatile. Insecurity persists in several areas, particularly in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa, limiting safe and sustainable returns for many displaced families. Ongoing displacement, damaged infrastructure, explosive hazard contamination, and disrupted access to essential services continue to exacerbate vulnerabilities among conflict-affected populations while placing additional strain on Lebanon's already overstretched public systems.

At the peak of the crisis, more than one million people were displaced, including over 127,000 individuals accommodated in 631 collective shelters. The conflict has also resulted in more than 3,185 deaths and 9,633 injuries, underscoring its severe humanitarian impact and the continued need for humanitarian assistance and recovery support. Moreover, Lebanon hosts an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees, the highest per capita refugee population in the world. The governorates of Baalbeck El-Hermel and Akkar -- IRC's target areas -- are historically among the most economically marginalized in Lebanon and host significant concentrations of Syrian refugees and Lebanese returnees.

IRC is developing a three-year, EUR 8 million multi-sector regional program under the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), Transitional Development Assistance (TDA) framework, targeting Syrian-affected populations in Syria and Lebanon across Livelihoods, Education/Early Childhood Development (ECD) sectors. The analysis should also note protection risks where relevant, given IRC's protection mainstreaming approach. Protection risks must be systematically analyzed across all components (Resilience Analysis, Peace and Conflict Analysis, and Gender Analysis), including how economic vulnerability, displacement, and conflict dynamics create or exacerbate risks for different population groups, in line with IRC’s protection mainstreaming approach. The program will be delivered in partnership with local organizations, with a minimum of 45% of program funds directed to local partners.

To meet BMZ's analytical requirements and ensure the program is evidence-based, IRC requires an external consultant to conduct an integrated regional analysis combining three mandatory components: a Resilience Analysis (RA), a Peace and Conflict Analysis (PCA), and a Gender Analysis (GA). These must be delivered as a single coherent document that directly informs the program's Theory of Change, logframe, and partner engagement strategy.

## 2. SCOPE OF WORK

This consultancy will produce a single integrated report that presents three mandatory BMZ TDA components the Gender Analysis (GA), as well as Resilience, Peace and Conflict Analysis (RPCA).While the three analyses are to be presented in one document, each must be addressed with sufficient depth to stand independently as required by BMZ. The outcomes of these analyses will directly inform the design, Theory of Change, and logframe of IRC's 2026 BMZ TDA regional proposal for Syria and Lebanon.

**For Lebanon (Baalbeck El-Hermel and Akkar):** The consultant will execute full-scope primary data collection (KIIs/FGDs) alongside secondary desk reviews across all pillars (RPCA, and GA).

**For Syria (Aleppo and Homs):** A robust and comprehensive Resilience, Peace, and Conflict Analysis (RPCA) was concluded in May 2026. Therefore, the RPCA pillar for Syria is treated as complete secondary desk contributions. The consultant will review, extract, and synthesize the findings of the May 2026 Syria RPCA directly into the regional framework. Primary field data collection in Syria will be conducted exclusively for the Gender Analysis (GA).2.1 Consultant's Role in the Resilience Analysis (RA)

The RA must provide a comprehensive understanding of three interconnected areas, as required by BMZ's Guiding Framework for Analysis, Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation:

- Existing risks and crises in the context, covering economic, ecological, political, security-related, and social dimensions at individual, household, community, and sub-national levels, with a particular focus on food security and livelihoods;
- Affected and responsible actors and structures, and their existing strengths, potential, and capacities (resilience capacities) to cope with risk