Postdoctoral Fellowship: EAR-PF: Using numerical modeling and synthetic stratigraphy generation to evaluate the impacts of extreme storms on delta channel mobility

Coastal deltas are landforms formed when a river flows into the ocean and can contain river channels that respond to ocean waves, tides, and river water output. Delta channels can change in their shape, size, and location during storms, but our ability to predict exactly what changes are expected in a storm is limited. It is important to understand and predict how these channels will evolve over time given that changes in delta channels can impact coastal wetlands as well as the lives and homes of the hundreds of millions of people living near coastal deltas. Deltas are at the frontline of where storms enhanced by climate change are expected to most heavily impact coastlines, with extreme storms expected to increase in severity by as much as 10% in the near future. The expression of storm-influenced deltas in the rock record is poorly understood, even though it could help us understand ancient climate and predict sediment distribution at future coastlines. This study seeks to address how storms impact delta channels, how impacts might evolve with increases in storm strength and frequency, and how delta sediments record storm impacts.

This study will include an ensemble of numerical delta simulations spanning a range of timescales (hundreds to thousands of years) and varied characteristics of extreme storms to understand channel mobility and resulting sedimentary rock record. Specifically, the researcher will leverage projected increases in storm intensity and frequency and a statistically validated set of plausible future extreme storms in the Gulf of Mexico to quantify rates of delta channel movement. A synthetic geologic record will be generated for each storm simulation to distinguish how storm events manifest in the rock record. The proposed study will 1) clarify expected rates/types of delta shoreline evolution 100 to 10,000 years in the future, allowing for coastal mitigation plans to minimize long-term loss of human lives and public/private property; 2) inform us if storm-influenced delta channel behavior can be related the rock record, with applications to recognizing storm-influenced stratigraphy in outcrop, seismic, and rock core; and 3) guide more location-specific and/or costly field or laboratory-based research investigating extreme storm impacts on delta evolution.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

Award Number: 2403602
Principal Investigator: Sarah Giles
State: NY