Identifying and characterizing mortality hotspots in low- and middle-income countries

Modified Project Summary/Abstract Section

Despite decades of average national reductions in mortality among children and adults living in the world’s poorest countries, some regions have been left out of this broad reductions in mortality. This project aims to identify the location of and characterize these “mortality hotspots,” where child or adult mortality are exceptionally high and on track to remain the among the world’s highest reach as the Sustainable Development Goals target year of 2030 approaches. To address this gap and identify paths for improving health among those living in mortality hotspots, this proposal includes three aims. First, we will obtain spatially granular estimates of mortality among infants, children, and adults in low- and middle-income countries using existing and novel spatial interpolation approaches.

Second, we will identify mortality hotspots by integrating different mortality estimates, projecting them to 2030, and identifying those locations at the high end of the mortality distribution as hotspots. Finally, we will classify and characterize hotspots based on their proximity to armed conflicts and ease of access for public health interventions. Identifying those hotspots that relatively safe and easier to reach is a step enabling targeting of public health interventions for near-term improvements. The results will inform targeted programs to reduce mortality and disease burden among the world's most vulnerable populations, ultimately advancing global public health efforts.

Grant Number: 1R21HD116234-01A1
NIH Institute/Center: NIH
Principal Investigator: Eran Bendavid