Fair risk profiles and predictive models for outcomes of obstructive sleep apnea through electronic medical record data

PROJECT SUMMARY
Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a sleep-related breathing disorder associated with major co-morbidities and is
estimated to affect nearly one billion people worldwide. Moreover, there are differences in prevalence, diagnosis
rates, and co-morbid outcomes for OSA based on the demographics of a patient, such as age, race, and gender.
The diversity of the clinical manifestations, objective measurements, and outcomes – the phenotype – of OSA
underscores the opportunity for predictive models to improve care of patients with OSA. Predicting future (i.e. 5-
year post-diagnosis) risks of OSA co-morbid outcomes and predicting how different treatments for OSA affect
these risks can help clinicians and patients choose the best treatment strategies.
Current OSA outcomes research has key limitations. Prior studies have characterized groups of OSA patients
that exhibit similar characteristics, referred to as sub-phenotypes of OSA. However, these studies have been
limited by analyzing relatively few variables obtainable from questionnaires. To address this limitation, we will
use rich longitudinal electronic medical records (EMR) data to characterize OSA sub-phenotypes and to predict
OSA outcome risks for individual patients. To extract insights from EMR data, we will leverage modern
computational methods based in machine learning (ML). A second major limitation of existing OSA research is
worse predictive model performance for some groups. Model biases have real-world negative implications. The
ubiquitous STOP-BANG questionnaire used to screen patients for further OSA testing performs worse for women
and Asian individuals, leading to potential delayed, under-, or misdiagnosis of OSA in these groups. To address
this limitation, this proposed project will assess and mitigate biases present in our predictive models.
To better understand patient factors associated with OSA outcomes, this project has two aims. In Aim 1
clustering methods will be applied to identify groups of OSA patients who share similar sub-phenotypes
according to combinations of clinical features and objective measurements present in EMR data. Then, sub-
phenotypes will be compared by the rates at which they exhibit different OSA outcomes, providing intuition into
potential underlying pathophysiologic differences. In Aim 2, ML classifiers will be applied to build and validate
algorithmically fair predictive models for future OSA outcome risks as well as effects of OSA treatments. Patient-
specific factors that are consistently associated with differences in OSA outcome risks through Aims 1 and 2 will
provide both personalized insights into treatment options and stronger evidence of underlying pathophysiology
worthy of further investigation.

Grant Number: 5F30HL168976-03
NIH Institute/Center: NIH
Principal Investigator: Victor Borza