Collaborative Research: RAPID: Drivers and implications of recent rapid sea ice decline in the Ross Sea

This project will advance the understanding of causes and implications of recent extreme sea ice variability in the Antarctic through development of a research and logistical partnership with New Zealand. We focus on the Ross Sea as an area of strategic interest for the US and New Zealand, a major locus of recent variability, and as a key area of significance to global ocean circulation and intact ecosystem food webs, motivating the establishment of the Ross Sea Marine Protected Area (MPA). Understanding drivers of sea ice variability and its implications for this large and remote region requires integration across a range of approaches. This pilot study will integrate deployment and testing of advanced observing technology, modelling, and satellite remote sensing to assess capabilities and strategies for a broader integrated program to understand the drivers and implications of the recent rapid sea ice decline in the Ross Sea. This program seeks to advance capability in key areas, building a strategic collaboration between the United States Antarctic Program and the New Zealand Antarctic Research Program and other international partners, in alignment with the “Antarctica InSync” initiative, supporting coordinated, sustainable research in one of the world’s most logistically challenging environments. This will foster increased collaboration and shared logistics support, and further enhance US leadership in the Antarctic. Insights from this work will help improve predictions of how the Southern Ocean and sea ice both respond to and influence global environmental change.

Antarctic sea ice extent has exhibited extreme recent variability, with a modest long term increase culminating in 2015, followed by a dramatic decline in 2016 and record lows in both summer and winter in 2023, although with significant variability over the past decade. These changes in sea ice extent are likely closely related to changes in thickness. The causes of this recent variability and its implications have been identified as a key theme for the international research effort “Antarctica InSync”. This collaborative RAPID project will (1) evaluate advanced and emerging technology that can contribute to an observational network capable of capturing key processes across the Ross Sea, (2) improve and evaluate both satellite and model products with in situ observations, and (3) develop a combined modelling, satellite, and in situ observational strategy to understand these processes. This is centered on capability development through evaluation of techniques in the McMurdo region, leveraging existing programs and logistics. This capability can then be exploited in future projects through widespread deployment of in situ observations, integrated with a refined modelling and satellite observation strategy to address the complex coupled role of various atmosphere-ice-ocean processes in driving sea ice variability.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

Award Number: 2610156
Principal Investigator: Rachel Tilling
Funds Obligated: $29,999
State: MD