Assessing hurricane damage and species vulnerability across six Jamaican forest ecosystems following catastrophic and compounding hurricanes

On 28 November 2025, Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds >295 km/h, made landfall on Jamaica's south-western coast as the most powerful hurricane on record (since 1851) and the third most intense Atlantic hurricane, damaging six tropical forest ecosystems. These include the Blue Mountains (BM) cloud forest, John Crow Mountains (JCM) wet montane forest, Cockpit Country (CC) moist forest, Portland Ridge (PR) and Hellshire Hills (HH) (the last remaining habitat for the critically endangered Jamaican iguana) dry forests, and the Black River Lower Morass (BRLM) herbaceous wetland. Two sites (CC and BRLM) experienced significant damage. Melissa's impact was compounded by Hurricane Beryl, (Category 4, 3 July 2024) that damaged the BRLM and PR. All sites are internationally recognized biodiversity hotspots and protected areas including a National Park (BM and JCM), World Heritage site (BM and JCM), tentative World Heritage Site (CC), and RAMSAR wetland (BRLM). The frequency of high-intensity hurricane impacts has increased due to climate change. The JCM is the most frequently impacted – five hurricanes in 21 years (2004-2025) versus nine in 153 years (1851-2003) – while the CC is the least frequently impacted – two hurricanes in 37 years (1988-2025) versus three in 136 years (1851-1987). Past hurricane damage at three sites (PR, HH and CC) was never assessed and species/ecosystem vulnerability remains unknown.
Hurricanes alter plant species composition through differential mortality and recruitment over years or decades. Compounding impacts reduce populations of vulnerable species. Jamaica has a high diversity of endemic frogs (23 species), many threatened with extinction. Many use bromeliads - funnel/vase-shaped rosette plants growing in trees and on the ground that holds water - as habitats. Most have fallen or are buried, and recovery may take decades. Accurate pre-recovery damage mapping is essential for tracking these changes and identifying vulnerable plant and frog species. Current mapping methods have limitations. Pre- and post-hurricane satellite image differencing is limited by image availability and cloud cover and validated using qualitative, subjective categories. Maps from our hurricane damage model can track forest structural changes and predict frog population responses but were validated using a subjective, site-specific parameter. To generalize our model across forest types and scales, we need data from objective, three-dimensional (3D) measurement methods. We have pre-hurricane data from 217 permanent plots (13.8 ha) monitoring 20,000+ stems of 200+ plant species across five impacted ecosystems, with recent surveys (2011-2025) including 3D data, plus 32 additional BM plots (1.426 ha), some monitored since 1974. Consequently, we have an unprecedented opportunity to quantify damage from a single Category 5 hurricane – the first in 174 years – and compounding hurricanes and identify accurate damage metrics and vulnerable species. With existing and newly established plots, we will (1) characterize hurricane damage across six tropical forest types using 3D data, (2) validate our damage model and satellite image differencing maps for broader applications, (3) assess frog populations at damaged and undamaged sites, and (4) identify plant and frog species vulnerable to damage from single catastrophic and compounding hurricanes. Follow-up surveys over 1-2, 2-5, and >5 years will track species responses to identify vulnerable/resilient species for conservation prioritization. Findings from our rapid and medium to longer term assessments will guide conservation and management initiatives aimed at reducing ecosystem vulnerability and supporting recovery in an era of intensifying hurricanes.

UKRI Funder: UKRI
Status: Active